With much of southern Australia experiencing a combination of above average temperatures and below average rainfall in 2018, large parts of the country face above normal bushfire potential over the coming months.
The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018 shows fire potential across New South Wales, the ACT, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and southern Western Australia and Queensland.
The warmer and drier than average weather over recent months, combined with the forecasts for spring, suggest that the southern fire season is likely to commence earlier than usual and be more active than normal.
The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2018 is used by fire authorities to make strategic decisions on resource planning and prescribed fire management for the upcoming fire season. The outlook is developed at an annual workshop convened by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC. The workshop discussed the weather, landscape conditions and cross-border implications leading into summer and determined areas that had the potential for a fire season that was above normal, normal or below normal.
The Outlook map shows the bushfire outlook for southern Australia through to the end of 2018. This map has been combined with the outlook for the northern Australia bushfire season, which was released in July 2018, to show the areas of fire potential for all of Australia. (See Hazard Note 49, July 2018).
This Outlook will be reviewed towards the end of spring to take into account the impacts of actual temperatures and rainfall in the lead up to summer.
Source: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC